3Q26 CapEx Cycle 4-Signal Audit: D&A, CIP, Contract Liabilities & SK Hynix's -32.6T KRW Non-Op Swing

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Primary-Filing Valuation Verdict (UNDERVALUED Upstream vs OVERVALUED Tesla (370x P/E) · ▲ BULLISH Hynix·TSMC / ▼ CAUTIOUS Tesla): Upstream Suppliers (Rev Growth >> D&A Growth) Are Undervalued; Downstream Tesla (D&A > Rev Growth, 370x P/E) Is Overvalued

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3-Step Filing-to-Valuation Summary

• 4-Signal Fact: Rev Growth minus D&A Growth spread: SK Hynix +133pp, TSMC +8.8pp vs Tesla -8.4pp (inverted)
• Valuation Estimate: SK Hynix (4.17x Fwd P/E) & TSMC (26.97x P/E) Undervalued vs Tesla (370.1x P/E) Overvalued
• 6–12M Direction: ▲ BULLISH on upstream operating leverage / ▼ CAUTIOUS on downstream D&A drag

Among 3Q26 filings, only Tesla saw D&A outpace revenue (+14.4% vs. -0.7% QoQ), while SK Hynix's 3Q IR deck resolves the -32.6T KRW non-operating swing behind its QoQ net income drop.

As of 2026.10.30 · Source: SK Hynix DART 1H26 Report & 3Q26 IR Deck, TSMC 3Q26 FS/Management Report & Tesla 3Q26 10-Q · Derived ratios marked (Calc.).

1. Signal 1 — D&A Growth vs. Revenue Growth (Peak-Margin Trigger)

• Disclosure Scope: TSMC 3Q26 FS/Management Report cover D&A and inventory days [1][2]; SK Hynix 3Q26 D&A/inventory come from its 3Q26 IR deck while CIP/contract liabilities come from its 1H26 DART Semi-Annual Report (as of June 30, 2026) [10][12]; Tesla covers all four in its 3Q26 Form 10-Q [4].
• TSMC (Signal OFF): 3Q26 D&A +10.9% QoQ vs. revenue +17.6% QoQ (-6.7%p gap) [1][2]. GPM still dipped 67.7% → 66.4% on initial 2nm ramp dilution.
• SK Hynix (Signal OFF): 3Q26 D&A +21.8% YoY (+7.6% QoQ) vs. revenue +327.9% YoY (+31.9% QoQ) (2Q26: D&A +17.0% vs. rev +256.8% YoY); OPM rose 76% → 80% [8][10][11][12].
• Tesla (Signal ON): Total D&A + impairment +14.4% QoQ vs. revenue -0.7% QoQ (+15.1%p gap); Note 5 pure depreciation ($1.58B) +17.0% YoY vs. revenue -0.2% YoY (2Q26 was off: +19.1% D&A vs. +25.5% rev YoY) [4][5][6]. Headline GAAP OPM rose 1.41% (2Q26) → 2.56% (3Q26) (vs. 5.66% 4Q25, 4.20% 1Q26, 5.78% 3Q25), but stripping Note 11 IEEPA tariff refunds ($786M COGS reduction across $526M Energy + $260M Auto, minus $339M Energy customer refund) drops 3Q26 OPM to ~0.95% (< 2Q26's 1.41%) [4][5].

2. Signals 2–4 — CIP, Contract Liabilities & Inventory Days

• SK Hynix 1H26 CIP & DART Utilization Caveat: 1H26 CIP was 20.83T KRW (-4.2% vs. year-end) [10]; 3Q26 DRAM bit shipments rose ~10% QoQ while NAND bits edged down [12]. DART nuance: the "100% average utilization" in the 1H26 report is operating hours ÷ available hours (and printed capacity of 24.15T KRW equals actual cost-basis output), not physical wafer capacity [10].
• Tesla CIP Surge: CIP jumped +31.4% QoQ to $11.211B at Sept 30, 2026 even as Texas Model Y capacity expanded (>250,000 → >375,000 units/yr) and Texas Megapack entered production [4][5][7] → new projects entering CIP outpaced line completions.
• Contract Liabilities vs. LTAs: Tesla current deferred revenue rose +36.0% QoQ to $4.661B [5]. SK Hynix 1H26 contract liabilities rose +10.4% YTD to ~523.5B KRW (cash prepayments received, distinct from the >50% 2027–2028 LTA volume commitments) [8][10].
• Inventory Days: Raw inventory balances rose QoQ at all three, but TSMC inventory turnover days fell from 87 days (2Q26) to 82 days (3Q26) on higher wafer shipments [1].

3. Resolving SK Hynix's -32.6T KRW Non-Operating Swing

• 2Q26 vs. 3Q26 Non-Operating Bridge: While 3Q26 OP rose +38% QoQ to 83.33T KRW (80% OPM), net profit fell -58% QoQ to 39.78T KRW because net non-operating income swung from ~+62.2T KRW (2Q26) to ~-32.6T KRW (3Q26) (Calc. from DART table) [9].
• Exact IR Breakdown (Page 6 of 3Q26 IR Deck): Driven by two items totaling 34.55T KRW: (1) 11.63T KRW FX-related loss from exchange-rate decline + (2) 22.92T KRW investment-asset valuation loss (remaining net non-op items slightly positive) [12]. Next check: specific investment assets in the full Q3 DART report footnotes [3].

Takeaway & Next-Quarter Checks

• Core Verdict: Upstream (TSMC/SK Hynix) = D&A Signal OFF, Turnover Improving (87d → 82d) | Downstream (Tesla) = D&A Signal ON (+14.4% vs. -0.7% rev QoQ), Ex-Refund OPM ~0.95%.

Sources

1. TSMC 3Q26 Management Report (PDF, pp. 1–2, 4), 2026.10.15.
2. TSMC 3Q26 Consolidated Financial Statements (FS.pdf, pp. 2, 4), 2026.10.15.
3. TSMC SEC EDGAR Form 6-K Filing Index, accessed 2026.10.30.
4. Tesla Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (Notes 1, 5 & 11), 2026.10.22.
5. Tesla Q3 2026 Update (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), 2026.10.21.
6. Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (Note 5), 2026.07.23.
7. Tesla Q2 2026 Update (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), 2026.07.22.
8. SK Hynix Newsroom: 3Q 2026 Business Results, 2026.10.28.
9. DART SK Hynix Preliminary 3Q26 Earnings Fair Disclosure, 2026.10.28.
10. DART SK Hynix 2026 Semi-Annual Report (1H26 CIP, Utilization & Contract Liabilities), 2026.08.14.
11. SK Hynix Newsroom: 2Q 2026 Business Results, 2026.07.29.
12. SK Hynix FY2026 Q3 Earnings IR Presentation (PDF, pp. 4, 6, 16, 19–20), 2026.10.28.

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Personal analysis record based on public regulatory filings. Not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.