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Primary-Filing Valuation Verdict (UNDERVALUED (P/E 26.97x · PEG ~0.61x) · ▲ BULLISH (+44% FY26 Growth · 67% 4Q GM Guide)): At 26.97x P/E Against ~44% USD Revenue Growth and 58.7% OPM (PEG ~0.61x), TSMC Remains Undervalued

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3-Step Filing-to-Valuation Summary

3Q26 Filing Fact: $46.72B Rev (+44.4% YoY), 66.4% GM, 58.7% OPM, N2 wafer share reaching 8%
Valuation Estimate: NYSE:TSM ($406.13) trades at 26.97x P/E · 19.2x Annualized 3Q OP · ~0.61x PEG
6–12M Direction: ▲ BULLISH — 4Q26 guidance (67.0% midpoint GM, 59.5% OPM) confirms N2 pricing power

Issuer & Live Multiples	Valuation & 6–12M Direction	Primary-Filing Basis & Catalyst
TSMC (2330.TW / TSM) Mkt Cap $2.11T · P/E 26.97x · Cap/Ann.3Q OP 19.2x · PEG 0.61x	UNDERVALUED (▲ Bullish)	Monopoly AI foundry compounding at ~44% YoY while trading at a market-average 27.0x P/E

TSMC raised 2026 USD revenue growth guidance to ~44%, held 66.4% GPM during the initial 2nm ramp (8% of wafer sales), and kept FY26 CapEx unchanged at US$60B–$64B.

As of 2026.10.28 · Source: TSMC 3Q26 Earnings Release, Management Report, Presentation & Transcript (2026.10.15) · Derived ratios marked (Calc.).

TSMC 3Q26 Margin Trend and Wafer Revenue Share by Node

Left: TSMC quarterly gross and operating margin progression through 4Q26 guidance midpoint. Right: 3Q26 wafer revenue mix by node (≤7nm = 79%). Source: TSMC 3Q26 releases [1][2][3].

1. 3Q26 Results & 4Q26 / FY26 Guidance

3Q26 Beat & Margin Resilience: Revenue reached US$46.72B (+16.2% QoQ, +41.2% YoY), beating the US$45.8B upper guidance bound [1][2]. GPM printed 66.4% (-1.3pp QoQ from 67.7% on initial N2 mass-production dilution, but inside the 65%–67% guide and +6.9pp YoY vs. 59.5%); OPM printed 58.7% (vs. 60.3% in 2Q26 and 50.6% in 3Q25) [2].
4Q26 & Full-Year 2026 Outlook: 4Q26 revenue guided to US$52.3B–$54.3B (midpoint US$53.3B, +14% QoQ); 4Q26 GPM guided to 65%–67% (midpoint 66.0%, -40bp QoQ) [1][4]. Full-year 2026 USD revenue growth raised from ">40%" to ~44% [3].
Overseas Fab Dilution & CoWoS Roadmap: Overseas fab ramp dilution is guided at ~2pp in 2026, widening to 3–4pp/year in subsequent years [4]. Management noted 2024–2029 AI accelerator CAGR will likely exceed the prior mid-to-high-50% guide and is preparing 9x and 14x reticle-size large-substrate CoWoS packaging [4].

Item	Disclosed & Guided Figures
3Q26 Revenue	US$46.72B (+16.2% QoQ, +41.2% YoY; above the prior guidance top end of US$45.8B)
3Q26 Profitability	Gross margin 66.4% (-1.3%p QoQ, +6.9%p YoY), operating margin 58.7%
4Q26 Guidance	Revenue US$52.3B–$54.3B (midpoint US$53.3B), gross margin 65%–67% (midpoint 66.0%)
Full-Year 2026 Outlook	USD revenue growth of ~44% (raised from prior guidance of above 40%)
Node & Platform Mix	≤7nm wafer revenue share 79% (3nm 33%, 5nm 28%, 2nm 8%), HPC share 68%
CapEx & Cash Flow	2026 CapEx budget kept at US$60B–$64B (3Q26 spend US$13.84B), free cash flow NT$476.56B

2. Platform & Wafer Node Mix: HPC 68%, ≤7nm 79%, N2 Jumps to 8%

Platform Mix: HPC grew +22% QoQ to 68% of revenue (up from 66% in 2Q26); Smartphone rose +10% QoQ while its share edged down 22% → 21% [2].
Wafer Node Mix: Advanced nodes (≤7nm) = 79% of wafer revenue: 3nm = 33% (overtaking 5nm = 28%; 7nm = 10%), while 2nm (N2) jumped from 3% (2Q26) to 8% (3Q26) in a single quarter [2][3].

3. Capital Discipline: US$60B–$64B CapEx Budget Unchanged

Cash Flow & CapEx Math: Despite excess AI demand, FY26 CapEx guidance stayed locked at US$60B–$64B (3Q26 CapEx US$13.84B; 9M26 cumulative US$40.64B) [2][3][4]. In NTD: 3Q26 OCF (NT$919.77B) - CapEx (NT$443.21B) = NT$476.56B FCF [2].

Takeaway & Next-Quarter Checks

Core Thesis: N2 Share 3% → 8% With Only -130bp GPM Dip (66.4%) + 4Q Midpoint 66.0% => Leading-Edge Pricing Absorbs Depreciation.
4Q26 Checks: (1) N2 depreciation absorption as wafer share scales above 8%; (2) Overseas fab dilution trajectory (2pp → 3–4pp).

Sources

TSMC 3Q26 Earnings Release, 2026.10.15.
TSMC 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report, 2026.10.15.
TSMC 3Q26 Earnings Conference Presentation, 2026.10.15.
TSMC 3Q26 Earnings Conference Transcript, 2026.10.15.

Personal analysis record based on public regulatory filings. Not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

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