Primary-Filing Newsletter & Issue Archive

Asia Filing Notes

Korea (DART K-IFRS) & Asia Semiconductor Primary-Filing Notes for Global Investors — Cross-Checked With U.S. SEC Disclosures

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Published Primary-Filing Issues (15 Archive Notes)

# Issue Title, Subtitle & Primary Filing Coverage Read / Copy
#01
KRX Names 151 Chronic Low-PBR Firms (0.25x Avg): Conglomerate Audit, KOSDAQ Art. 6(3) Quirk & Book-Shrinkage Accounting
KRX tagged 151 chronic low-PBR firms (96 KOSPI, 55 KOSDAQ; avg 0.25x, lowest SUN&L 0.06x) across broker MTS screens while granting 34 Value-Up filers a 1-year grace period. We audit Lotte Shopping (0.13x consolidated PBR, 3.35x P/OP), Lotte Chemical (0.15x), Taekwang Industrial (24.41% treasury shares), the KOSDAQ <10-firm sector quirk (EcoSimplex 0.40x), and why shrinking book equity without ROE recovery fails to re-rate multiples.
KRX: 023530 / 011170 / 003240 · DART K-IFRS · 2026-11-02
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#02
Samsung Electronics 3Q26 DART Audit: DS 72.4% OPM vs. SK Hynix 79.7% (7.3pp Gap)
Samsung 3Q26 consolidated revenue hit 195.25T KRW and OP 107.44T KRW. DS division posted 106.5T KRW OP on 147.1T KRW sales (72.4% OPM), setting a 75.7% standalone Memory OPM boundary vs. SK Hynix's 79.7%.
KRX: 005930 / 000660 · DART K-IFRS · 2026-11-01
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#03
3Q26 CapEx Cycle 4-Signal Audit: D&A, CIP, Contract Liabilities & SK Hynix's -32.6T KRW Non-Op Swing
Auditing 4 cycle indicators across TSMC, SK Hynix, and Tesla: only Tesla triggered D&A > Revenue growth (+14.4% vs -0.7% QoQ), while SK Hynix's 3Q IR deck breaks down its -32.6T KRW non-operating swing (11.63T FX loss + 22.92T investment valuation loss).
DART 1H26 · TWSE 2330 · SEC 10-Q · 2026-11-01
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#04
Korea AI Second-Derivative Audit (Oct 29–30 DART): KOSPI Transformers & Substrates vs. KOSDAQ Fab Specialists
Auditing 7 Oct 29-30 DART filings across KOSPI (Hyosung Heavy 298040.KS 13.99% OPM, Daeduck 353200.KS +259.4% YoY OP, Samsung Electro-Mechanics $658M MLCC contract) and KOSDAQ (TCK 064760.KQ 27.45% OPM, Raon Robotics +596.1% QoQ OP, Wort & Withtech Samsung fab orders).
KOSPI: 298040·353200·009150 | KOSDAQ: 064760·232680·396470·348350 · 2026-11-01
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#05
Korea Value-Up Filing Audit: KOSDAQ Share Cancellations (JVM -3.20%, BGF Eco -6.00%) vs. KOSPI Wage Disposals (Kia, Mobis)
On Oct 30, 2026, KOSDAQ's JVM (-3.20% of shares, 15.90B KRW) and BGF Eco Materials (-6.00% of shares, 14.49B KRW) filed permanent Commercial Act Art. 343(1) share cancellations, while KOSPI's Kia (190.01B KRW) and Hyundai Mobis (33.94B KRW) re-issued treasury shares for employee wages.
KOSDAQ: 054950·126600 | KOSPI: 000270·012330·008930 · 2026-11-01
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#06
KOSPI Auto Stack vs. KOSDAQ Tech (3Q26 DART): Why Headline Operating Profit Misses Pre-Tax Swings
Auditing 7 Oct 29-30 DART 4-line earnings tables across KOSPI Auto (Kia 5.75% OPM, AutoEver 5.63% OPM, HL Mando -92.74B KRW non-op swing to -41.20B EBT) and KOSDAQ Tech (Suprema -23.52B non-op swing, SOOP 13.74% OPM, Satrec +502.7% QoQ OP, AbClon Yuhan R&D closeout).
KOSPI: 000270·307950·204320 | KOSDAQ: 067160·236200·099320·174900 · 2026-11-01
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#07
Nov 2 Korea Live DART Audit: DI Corp (27.3% OPM, 5.0x OP), POSCO Group Split & Hyundai Futurenet (-2.24% Share Cancel)
Same-day valuation audit of 15 Nov 2, 2026 DART filings: DI Corp (3Q26 OP +493.1% YoY, 27.26% OPM, 4.97x annualized OP), Pan Ocean (3.91x OP, 0.49x PBR), POSCO International (5.59x OP, 9.58x Fwd PER), Hyundai Futurenet (-2.24% share cancel, 0.48x PBR), and SNT Energy (17.51% OPM vs. -28.57B KRW FX loss; 6.66x OP) screen Undervalued against POSCO Future M (45.6x OP) and POSCO DX (43.8x OP).
KOSPI: 003160·003670·047050·028670·126560·100840·006280 | KOSDAQ: 035890 · 2026-11-02
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#08
TSMC 3Q26 Audit: 2026 Growth Guided to ~44%, 66.4% GPM During N2 Ramp & $60B–$64B CapEx Discipline
TSMC 3Q26 revenue hit US$46.72B (+16.2% QoQ, +41.2% YoY) with 66.4% GPM and 58.7% OPM as 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue. 4Q26 guides US$53.3B midpoint (+14% QoQ) and 66.0% GPM while keeping FY26 CapEx at US$60B-$64B.
TWSE: 2330 / NYSE: TSM · 3Q26 · 2026-10-29
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#09
SK Hynix 3Q26 Audit: 104.62T KRW Revenue, 80% OPM, HBM4 Crossover & ~100T KRW Shareholder Return Plan
SK Hynix 3Q26 revenue hit 104.6155T KRW (+32% QoQ, +328% YoY) and OP 83.3338T KRW (80% OPM), while net profit dropped 58% QoQ to 39.7756T KRW. Net cash reached 98.7T KRW alongside a ~100T KRW FY26 return target.
KRX: 000660 · DART K-IFRS & IR · 2026-10-29
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#10
Tesla 3Q26 Form 10-Q Audit: Stripping Note 11 Tariff Refunds (~16.8% Auto, ~23.8% Energy) & +69.4% R&D Surge
Reversing Form 10-Q Note 11 IEEPA tariff refunds drops Tesla's 3Q26 ex-credit Auto GPM from 18.1% to ~16.8% and Energy GPM from 33.1% to ~23.8%, while R&D jumped +69.4% YoY to $2.761B and 9M CapEx hit $13.01B.
NASDAQ: TSLA · Form 10-Q Note 11 · 2026-10-29
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#11
3Q26 AI Supply-Chain Cross-Check: Upstream Margins (80.0% SK Hynix, 58.7% TSMC) vs. Downstream Compute Buildout
Side-by-side 3Q26 cross-check of SK Hynix (80.0% OPM, 98.7T KRW net cash), TSMC (58.7% OPM, 68% HPC, $60B-$64B CapEx), and Tesla (2.6% OPM, +69.4% R&D, $13.01B 9M CapEx).
KRX 000660 · TWSE 2330 · NASDAQ TSLA · 2026-10-30
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#12
Big Tech 3Q26 CapEx Scorecard: 4-Firm CapEx ($201.9B, +107.6% YoY) Topped OCF (115.1% CapEx/OCF)
Across Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, combined 3Q26 gross cash PP&E CapEx rose +107.6% YoY to ~$201.9B vs +10.4% OCF growth—lifting combined CapEx/OCF from 61.2% to 115.1%. Only Microsoft stayed below 100%.
NASDAQ: GOOGL · MSFT · META · AMZN (10-Q/8-K) · 2026-10-31
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#13
Apple Pre-FY26 Q4 Baseline Audit: 2.24% CapEx/Revenue vs. Hyperscalers' 27.02%–49.53%
In the aligned Apr-Jun 2026 quarter, Apple spent 2.24% of revenue on cash CapEx ($2.455B / $109.417B) while the 4 cloud hyperscalers spent 27.02%-49.53% (and 38.26%-52.54% in Jul-Sep). Here is the $3.534B-$3.599B FY26 Q4 CapEx baseline.
NASDAQ: AAPL · SEC Form 10-K / 10-Q · 2026-11-01
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#14
3Q26 Filing Footnote Audit: Stripping Tariff Refunds, SBC, Buyback Tranches & N2 Ramp Dilution
A 4-point accounting audit across 3Q26 filings: (1) Tesla Note 11 IEEPA tariff refunds (~16.8% Auto, ~23.8% Energy GPM), (2) Tesla $1.165B SBC bridge from $718M OP to $6.263B OCF, (3) SK Hynix 20T buyback split, and (4) TSMC N2/overseas fab dilution.
SEC Form 10-Q / 8-K Footnote Methodology · 2026-10-31
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#15
Capital-Cycle Audit (3Q26): Tesla, TSMC & SK Hynix Are Funding AI CapEx From OCF & Cash Buffers, Not Debt
In capital-cycle theory, systemic risk emerges when CapEx outruns OCF and is bridged with debt. In 3Q26, Tesla (+$1.531B FCF, $45.45B cash + $30B credit line), TSMC (NT$476.56B FCF), and SK Hynix (98.7T KRW net cash) self-funded CapEx.
KRX 000660 · TWSE 2330 · US 4-Peer Cash Flow · 2026-11-01
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#16
October 2026 FOMC Audit: 3.75%–4.00% Hold (10–2 Vote), Two 25bp Hike Dissents & 4.1% SEP Median
The Oct 28, 2026 FOMC held Fed Funds at 3.75%-4.00% on a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting for a +25bp hike. Growth wording stepped up from 'solid' to 'strong', Q3 GDP printed 3.4%, and Sept minutes flagged heavy hyperscaler AI bond issuance.
Federal Reserve FOMC & U.S. Treasury · 2026-11-01
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Welcome Email Subject Welcome to Asia Filing Notes — Korea (DART K-IFRS) & Asia Semiconductor Filing Notes
Welcome Email Body 
Welcome to Asia Filing Notes.

Every note we publish starts from primary regulatory filings — Korean FSS DART K-IFRS receipts (rcpNo), TWSE financial statements, and U.S. SEC Form 10-Q/10-K footnotes — rather than sell-side summaries.

What you will receive:
1. Korea & Asia Semiconductor Primary-Filing Audits: HBM4 margin bridges (SK Hynix 80% OPM vs. Samsung DS 72.4%), TSMC N2/CoWoS capacity economics, and 2nd-derivative KOSPI/KOSDAQ supply-chain bottlenecks.
2. Forensic Footnote Reconciliation: Operating Profit vs. Pre-Tax Income divergences, IEEPA tariff refund strips, and Commercial Act Art. 343-1 treasury share cancellations vs. wage disposals.
3. Interactive Valuation Scorecards: Every Substack issue links directly to our full interactive scorecard and filing table on https://asia-filing-notes.pages.dev.

Start with our flagship 3Q26 audits here: https://asia-filing-notes.pages.dev

Personal analysis record based on public regulatory filings. Not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Substack Notes Feed Queue (15 Discovery Notes)

NOTE-01 · KRX DART K-IFRS & 3Q26 IR (As of 2026.10.28)
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SK Hynix (000660.KS) Printed an 80% Operating Margin in 3Q26 — Yet Trades at 2.95x EV / Annualized 3Q OP

  • 3Q26 Consolidated Revenue: 104.6155T KRW (+32% QoQ, +328% YoY; up from 52.58T KRW in 1Q26)
  • 3Q26 Operating Profit: 83.3338T KRW (80% OPM vs. 37.61T KRW / 37.85T KRW 1Q26 baseline & 60.54T KRW in 2Q26)
  • Balance Sheet Fortress: 114.5T KRW cash vs. 15.8T KRW debt = 98.7T KRW Net Cash (+29.3T KRW QoQ) + 22.4T KRW capital return
Falsifiable Question: Will HBM4 revenue overtake HBM3E on schedule in 4Q26 as M15X ramps, keeping consolidated OPM >=75% through 1H27?
NOTE-02 · KRX DART K-IFRS (rcpNo 20261029800087 & 20261028800036)
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Why Samsung Memory's Standalone 3Q26 Operating Margin Is Mathematically Bounded at <=75.7% vs. SK Hynix's 79.7%

  • Samsung 3Q26 DS Division: 147.1T KRW revenue, 106.5T KRW operating profit = 72.4% DS OPM (Calc.)
  • Samsung Standalone Memory Revenue: 140.7T–140.8T KRW -> even if non-Memory DS (6.3T KRW rev) had 0 OP, Memory OPM = 75.7%
  • 5-Quarter OPM Spread (SK Hynix minus Samsung DS): 25.4pp (3Q25) -> 5.8pp (1Q26) -> 6.4pp (2Q26) -> 7.3pp (3Q26)
Falsifiable Question: Can Samsung narrow the 7.3pp DS operating margin gap below 5.0pp in 4Q26 as its 12-high HBM4 shipments scale?
NOTE-03 · KRX DART K-IFRS Preliminary Filings (Oct 29–30, 2026)
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Korea's 2nd-Derivative AI Bottlenecks: 3Q26 Operating Leverage Compresses Multiples to 11x–18x Annualized OP

  • Daeduck Electronics (353200.KS, FC-BGA/MLB): 3Q26 OP 87.87B KRW (+259.4% YoY, 21.02% OPM Calc., Cap/Ann.OP 16.6x)
  • TCK (064760.KQ, SiC etch rings): 3Q26 OP 30.22B KRW (+35.04% YoY, 27.45% OPM Calc., Fwd P/E 20.2x)
  • Raon Robotics (232680.KQ, vacuum wafer robots): 3Q26 OP 3.93B KRW (+596.1% QoQ, 14.82% OPM, Cap/Ann.OP 11.2x)
Falsifiable Question: Will 4Q26 DART filings confirm sustained >20% OPM at Daeduck and >26% OPM at TCK as domestic HBM4 fab lines take tool delivery?
NOTE-04 · KRX DART Commercial Act Art. 343-1 Disclosures (2026.10.30)
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Korea Value-Up Audit: True KOSDAQ Share Cancellations (-6.0% Float Cut) vs. KOSPI Wage-Linked Treasury Disposals

  • BGF Eco Materials (126600.KQ): Canceling 3,764,752 shares (-6.00% of issued shares, 14.49B KRW) on Nov 10 while trading at 0.45x P/B
  • JVM (054950.KQ): Canceling 387,032 shares (-3.20% of issued shares, 15.90B KRW) on Nov 6 at 9.33x P/E and 24.4% 3Q OPM
  • Kia (000270.KS) & Hyundai Mobis (012330.KS): Disposing 190.01B KRW & 33.94B KRW of treasury shares to employees on Nov 30 (re-entering float)
Falsifiable Question: Will BGF Eco Materials (3,030 KRW) close the 21% discount to its 3,850 KRW tender-and-cancel basis after the Nov 10 share retirement?
NOTE-05 · KRX DART Same-Day Live Filings (As of 2026.11.02)
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Nov 2 Live DART Audit: HBM Burn-In Tester DI Corp Prints 27.3% OPM (+493% YoY OP) at 4.97x Annualized 3Q OP

  • DI Corp (003160.KS): 3Q26 OP surged +493% YoY to 59.3B KRW (27.3% OPM), compressing Mkt Cap / Annualized 3Q OP to 4.97x
  • POSCO Intl (047050.KS) & Pan Ocean (028670.KS): 3Q net profit +91.6% & +218.5% YoY; trading at 5.59x and 3.91x annualized 3Q OP
  • Hyundai Futurenet (126560.KS): Retiring 2.24% of issued shares alongside +68.3% YoY 3Q OP growth at 0.48x P/B
Falsifiable Question: Does SNT Energy's -28.6B KRW non-operating FX translation loss reverse in 4Q26, exposing its 17.5% core OPM at 4.48x P/E?
NOTE-06 · KRX DART Preliminary Earnings Filings (Oct 29–30, 2026)
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Why Headline Operating Profit Misleads in Korean 3Q26 Filings: Auditing the Pre-Tax Income Gap

  • HL Mando (204320.KS): +51.54B KRW 3Q26 Operating Profit flipped to -41.20B KRW Pre-Tax Loss (-92.74B KRW non-operating swing)
  • Suprema (236200.KQ): +5.67B KRW OP (17.26% core OPM, 7.07x P/E) vs. -17.85B KRW Pre-Tax (-23.52B KRW non-operating swing)
  • Satrec Initiative (099320.KQ): 3Q26 OP surged +502.7% QoQ to 8.24B KRW (14.66% OPM, 19.2x annualized OP)
Falsifiable Question: When mid-November statutory Q3 footnotes drop on DART, how much of Suprema's -23.52B KRW non-op swing is non-cash FX valuation?
NOTE-07 · TWSE 2330 / NYSE:TSM 3Q26 Earnings Release & Presentation (2026.10.28)
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TSMC (2330.TW / TSM) 3Q26 Audit: 66.4% Gross Margin During Initial 2nm (N2) Ramp at ~0.61x PEG

  • 3Q26 Revenue: US$46.72B (+16.2% QoQ, +41.2% YoY, beating $45.8B guidance top end); FY26 USD growth raised to ~44%
  • Profitability: 66.4% Gross Margin & 58.7% Operating Margin in 3Q26, even as N2 jumped from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue
  • Cash Generation: NT$476.56B ($15.97B) 3Q26 Free Cash Flow while funding a US$60B–$64B FY26 CapEx budget (P/E 26.97x)
Falsifiable Question: Will TSMC hit or exceed the 66.0%–67.0% 4Q26 Gross Margin midpoint as N2 surpasses 10% of total wafer revenue?
NOTE-08 · U.S. SEC Form 10-Q / 8-K Filings (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN — As of 2026.10.30)
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Big Tech Spent $201.9B on 3Q26 Cash CapEx vs. $175.5B in OCF (115.1%) — Yet Alphabet Trades at 14.4x P/E

  • 4-Firm Combined 3Q26 Cash CapEx: ~$201.9B (+107.6% YoY) vs. Combined Operating Cash Flow of ~$175.5B (115.1% CapEx/OCF)
  • 3 of 4 Exceeded 100% of OCF: Amazon 178.9% (~$75.9B), Alphabet 121.4% (~$51.4B), Meta 106.5% (~$34.9B) vs. Microsoft 67.9% (~$39.4B)
  • Earnings vs. Multiple Disconnect: Alphabet GAAP OP grew +33.0% YoY at 14.44x P/E; Amazon GAAP OP surged +124.7% YoY at 19.00x P/E
Falsifiable Question: Will Alphabet's +53.2% QoQ jump in uncommenced finance leases convert into >30% Cloud revenue growth in 1H27, forcing a re-rating from 14.4x P/E?
NOTE-09 · DART 1H26/3Q26 · TWSE 2330 · SEC Form 10-Q Cross-Check (2026.10.31)
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The 4-Signal CapEx Cycle Audit: Revenue Growth Minus D&A Growth Spread Separates Winners From Margin Traps

  • Revenue Growth minus D&A Growth Spread: SK Hynix +133pp (Rev +152% vs D&A +19%) & TSMC +8.8pp (Rev +44.4% vs D&A +35.6%)
  • Downstream Inversion: Tesla D&A growth (+29.8%) outpaced revenue growth (+21.4%) by -8.4pp while trading at 370.14x P/E
  • SK Hynix Non-Op Footnote Check: 83.3T KRW 3Q26 OP vs. 50.8T KRW Pre-Tax Income reflects a -32.6T KRW non-operating swing (vs. +25.0T in 2Q26)
Falsifiable Question: At what quarterly D&A-to-Revenue threshold (>18% at TSMC or >15% at SK Hynix) would upstream gross margins begin to mean-revert?
NOTE-10 · KRX 000660 · TWSE 2330 · NASDAQ TSLA 3Q26 Cross-Check (2026.10.29)
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The AI Supply-Chain Valuation Paradox: 80% OPM Upstream Bottlenecks Trade at 4.2x Fwd P/E While 2.6% OPM Buyers Trade at 370x

  • 3Q26 Operating Margin Hierarchy: SK Hynix 80.0% OPM -> TSMC 58.7% OPM (66.4% GM) -> Tesla 2.6% GAAP OPM
  • Valuation Inversion: SK Hynix (4.17x Fwd P/E, 3.25x Ann. 3Q OP) & TSMC (26.97x P/E) vs. Tesla (370.14x P/E, 550x Ann. 3Q OP)
  • Contractual Visibility: SK Hynix locked in >50% of 2027–2028 HBM capacity under LTAs while building 98.7T KRW net cash
Falsifiable Question: Can downstream AI compute buyers expand software/FSD take-rates fast enough in 2027 to reverse the upstream-to-downstream margin spread?
NOTE-11 · U.S. SEC Form 10-Q Note 11 Audit (NASDAQ: TSLA — 2026.10.28)
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Tesla 3Q26 Form 10-Q Note 11 Audit: Stripping $739M in One-Time IEEPA Tariff Refunds Leaves Core OP Near Breakeven

  • Headline vs. Note 11 Core OP: Reported 3Q26 GAAP OP was $718M (2.6% OPM), aided by $739M in one-time IEEPA tariff refunds
  • Segment Margin Reset (Calc.): Auto Ex-Credit GM drops from 18.1% reported to ~16.8%; Energy GM drops from 33.1% to ~23.8%
  • CapEx Step-Up: 9M26 CapEx reached $13.01B ($4.732B in 3Q26 vs. $6.263B OCF), requiring >=$6.99B in 4Q26 to hit >$20B guidance
Falsifiable Question: Without Note 11 tariff refunds in 4Q26, can Tesla maintain GAAP Operating Margin above 2.0% while absorbing >$6.99B in Q4 CapEx?
NOTE-12 · U.S. SEC Form 10-K / 10-Q Baseline (NASDAQ: AAPL — 2026.10.30)
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Apple's 2.24% CapEx-to-Revenue Shield vs. Big Tech's 27%–50%: Defensive FCF Fortress, But Rich at 39.66x P/E

  • Aligned Apr–Jun 2026 Cash CapEx / Revenue: Apple 2.24% vs. Amazon 27.02%, Alphabet 37.50%, Microsoft 39.78%, Meta 49.53%
  • FY26 Q4 CapEx Baseline Check: 9M FY26 CapEx was $6.799B; +9%–11% YoY growth implies a $3.534B–$3.599B Q4 CapEx benchmark
  • Valuation Multiple: At $344.63 ($5.03T Mkt Cap), Apple trades at 39.66x P/E and 46.83x P/B vs. Alphabet at 14.44x P/E
Falsifiable Question: Will Apple's FY26 10-K keep annual cash CapEx below 3.0% of revenue, or will Private Cloud Compute force a hyperscaler-style capex inflection?
NOTE-13 · KRX 000660 · TWSE 2330 · SEC Cash-Flow Cross-Check (2026.10.29)
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Capital-Cycle Audit: Self-Funded Upstream Compounders (22%–38% CapEx/OCF) Beat Debt-Funded Spenders

  • 3Q26 CapEx / Operating Cash Flow: SK Hynix 21.8% (+47.3T KRW FCF) and TSMC 37.9% (NT$476.56B FCF) vs. US 4-Peer average 115.1%
  • Net Cash Accumulation: SK Hynix net cash jumped +29.3T KRW QoQ to 98.7T KRW; TSMC net cash reached NT$2.24T
  • Downstream Liquidity Buffer: Tesla holds $45.45B cash & ST investments + $30B credit facility against a 75.6% 3Q CapEx/OCF ratio
Falsifiable Question: In a 3.75%–4.00% Fed Funds regime, will self-funded net-cash compounders (Hynix, TSMC) continue outperforming debt-issuing AI spenders?
NOTE-14 · SEC Form 10-Q & DART K-IFRS Footnote Methodology (2026.10.29)
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3-Step 3Q26 Earnings Footnote Checklist: Stripping Tariff Refunds, Non-Op Swings & Employee Buyback Tranches

  • Step 1 (Gross Margin Footnotes): Removing Tesla's $739M Note 11 IEEPA tariff credits lowers Auto Ex-Credit GM by ~1.3pp and Energy GM by ~9.3pp
  • Step 2 (OP vs. Net Income Bridge): SK Hynix 3Q26 OP rose +38% QoQ to 83.33T KRW while Net Profit fell -58% QoQ to 39.78T KRW on non-op swing
  • Step 3 (Buyback Tranche Split): SK Hynix's 20T KRW buyback splits into 10T KRW true cancellation + 10T KRW employee compensation grant
Falsifiable Question: Which 3Q26 beats survive when you rank global tech stocks strictly on ex-one-off Operating Cash Flow minus SBC and maintenance CapEx?
NOTE-15 · Federal Reserve FOMC Statement & U.S. Treasury H.15 (2026.10.28)
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October 2026 FOMC Audit: 3.75%–4.00% Hold With Two +25bp Hike Dissents Favors Low-P/E Net-Cash Compounders

  • FOMC Policy Vote: Maintained 3.75%–4.00% target range (3.875% midpoint) on a 10–2 vote, with Cook & Hammack dissenting for a +25bp hike
  • Macro & SEP Upgrade: Activity upgraded from 'solid' to 'strong' (Q3 advance GDP 3.4%); Sept SEP median rose to 4.1% for End-2026 & End-2027
  • UST Yield Curve Reaction (Oct 28): 2Y par yield at 4.67% (-3bp), 10Y at 5.05% (+6bp), 30Y at 5.37% (+7bp)
Falsifiable Question: With the 10Y UST above 5.0% and two hawkish FOMC dissents, how can >35x P/E duration equities justify multiple expansion over 4x–15x P/E cash compounders?
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